NHL Notes
For those who have been curious over the last several weeks wondering if an NHL club would throw an offer-sheet to superstar players such as the Devils Zach Parise and the Predators Shea Weber you can put the idea to rest. In what seemed like a formality, both New Jersey and Nashville protected their most prized assets by filing for arbitration. Whether these players actually go to arbitration remains to be seen.
At any rate, this eliminates another club from sticking it to either of these franchises and forcing them to pay their player more than intended.
Both sides can still negotiate a long-term contract and avoid an Arb hearing altogether. If they do end up going to arbitration they cannot sign the player to a contract longer than one year.
There are a few ways to look at offer sheets. Either a team truly wants the player or they use arbitration as a weapon with the full intention of hurting another team.
Last summer we saw this with San Jose and Chicago as the Sharks signed D-man Niklas Hjalmarsson to a four year, $14 million offer sheet. San Jose knew they would either be getting the defenseman or goaltender Antti Niemi as Chicago would not be in position to sign both. Chicago matched the Hjalmarsson offer and the Sharks ended up with the goalie.
Offer sheets can certainly get nasty as in the case of Vancouver and St. Louis a few summers ago. The Blues were not happy with the Canucks signing David Backes to an offer sheet that paid the young power forward $7.5 million over three seasons. St. Louis quickly retaliated by signing Steve Bernier to a $2.5 million offer sheet. You can easily come to the conclusion that the Blues would not have offer-sheeted Bernier if Vancouver had not done the same to Backes. Regardless it made for an entertaining couple of weeks.
Most GM’s will tell you they aren’t scared of offer sheets and refuse to negotiate out of fear. While some will lead you to believe offer sheets are driven by agents, most will tell you teams are the driving force behind offer sheets.
Sniper extraordinaire Steven Stamkos would appear to be a prime target in the coming weeks. It’s safe to say Tampa Bay is offering Stamkos a contract that will pay him in the $7 million range. As one NHL source put it, “So if a team offers him $9 million, Tampa bay is going to walk away over two million”? Obviously not.
Coyotes D-man Keith Yandle and Kings D-man Drew Doughty are attractive names for a number of teams as well. Will Detroit look to fill the $6 million void left behind by Brian Rafalski’s retirement?
Something’s Brewing in Tampa….
Negotiations are continuing between Eric Brewer and Tampa Bay with the Lightning interested in hanging on to the veteran D-man. The two sides are obviously seeing if they come up with something that works. Considering both the player and the team would like to get a deal done I will be surprised if they don’t come to an agreement.
Osgood Retiring?
There’s been no official word on goaltender Chris Osgood in terms of his playing future. One thing Detroit has always done is take care of their star players after hockey. Don’t be surprised if Osgood becomes the next goaltending coach in Grand Rapids if he does call it quits.
More to come,
Andy Strickland
Strickland.andy@gmail.com
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I think one can look at Boston as to see how good offer sheets can be for your team. Especially cap heavy teams. If someone over pays for a player and you can't afford them sometimes getting all of those picks is a blessing if you're knocking against the cap. It opens up a lot for a team. So I agree there's no way most teams are fearful of an offer sheet.
My question to you ANdy is will the Blues make sure they have Scott Mayfield in their draft? Hear again is another talented St. Louis player and we were forced to live with the likes of Cam Janssen over better qualified players the last couple of years. It's not like having defenseive prospect depth is a bad thing either. One reason Nashville has been so successful is that they have managed to take care of their back end, goaltending and center position through the draft.
Of course I'm asking your take as if you ask someone from the Blues you will not receive a straight answer as it could give away their strategy and I understand and appreciate that. Just like hearing that Army isn't looking to trade Oshie. It's bad business to say if he really was because: 1)the other team knows you want to move a player and 2) if any deals fall through now you have to keep an unhappy player who now has a reason to be disloyal to you.
So I'm curious what your personal take is on all of this and why you feel that way.
Hear is when you are listening to some one. Here is a place. :)
What ownership will suck the one that is selling or the one they are trying to find.
Why do we need more St. Louis kids on our roster we have McRae. flag this comment
btw - for someone who's so concerned about spelling and grammar, you don't do a very good job of checking your own writing. Last two sentences are questions. Questions get question marks instead of periods. flag this comment
But to understand more fully where I'm coming from you can see the Cardinals are doing the same thing. It might not be easy for the players themselves, but if they can perform well in pro sports you might be able to get something called a home-town discount.
Also why not? This kid is a very good hockey player he stands at 6'4" . He's a smooth defensemen(this is actually correct spelling in the English, not American, language). A guy I knew,Neil K., was drafted by the Devils and was close to playing in the NHL but injuries kind of got in his way and he came back here where his dad played hockey. So there must be something to it. Yan also played here and he grew up here as did his brother who is in Colorado another team their father played for.
I don't understand why you might think the current ownership sucks, is terrible. You are selling a product in two ways. You can actually make money off the primary income from the team by putting a good product on the ice and getting through a few rounds of the play offs. So you make money and at the same time you increase the value of the franchise. Is that logic incorrect?
This is one of the most opportunistic off seasons in a while and there might not be another one like this for some time yet. You can get good value right now with this market, a draft that is considered weak but intriguing at the same time, a smallish free agent market, a large RFA market, many teams near the cap, teams desperate for change, ownership issues and a whole lot of possibility. We have a good GM in Army but the only thing he lacks is ammo large enough for bear.
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I understand where he's slotted at that's why I was wondering if the Blues were tracking him. That's too bad as a stay at home with good size and smooth skating is a nice addition to any club. I have heard it said one thing he needs to work on his shot. There are murmurs that he could become more offensive though the realistic expectations are for him as a stay at home guy. I still like this kid.
Any word or have their been any changes for him being invited to the US WJC tryouts? flag this comment
Also, did anyone read the P-D article interviewing Armstrong and his plans basically in the next week or so? It's just as we thought. There will definitely be a deal or two being made. Also crunching numbers a bit we should have some decent change remaining to fill in between 2-3 holes. Seeing Army I have to think one player he covets this off season, as so many other GMs will also, has to be Joel Ward.
Also of note, the way Army was speaking between the lines like he was in the P-D points to him merely waiting for the cap crunch teams being forced to move players. This sounds like he is hunting for bear. You've got to be thinking about teams like NYR, BOS or PHI etc. One player who would fit in here would certainly have to be Tanguay. We need wingers more than anything at this point.
I still don't see why we have to draft St. L. kids if there are two players and one is an
St L kid and one is a better player you go with the better player. If their equal then yeah I can see taking the St. L. kid.
Ownership is really in limbo their hands are tied if they spend too much a new owner may see it as a detriment and if they gut the team like previous owners then they won't get what the team is worth.
I agree with you that you don't just take a St. Louis kid because he's from StL. Just not smart. I would say that, as Guru mentioned above, if the kid's got talent and is picked at the right spot in the draft, one may be able to get a discounted rate due to loyalty. That said, I wonder how often that happens...
As for ownership, the team has to make the playoffs to be close to profitable. By spending a bit more on salary you may make your team more competitive. Also the projected cap basement is $48m. Right now, the Blues are $9m under. Granted, they've got some signings to take care of, but there's some money to be spent. They ain't spending $9m on Oshie, D'Ags, Crombeen, Reeves, etc. http://capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=27 Important to note that the number doesn't include Cracknell, Bishop, Cole, and other guys who might crack the lineup... flag this comment
I agree with you that you don't just take a St. Louis kid because he's from StL. Just not smart. I would say that, as Guru mentioned above, if the kid's got talent and is picked at the right spot in the draft, one may be able to get a discounted rate due to loyalty. That said, I wonder how often that happens...
As for ownership, the team has to make the playoffs to be close to profitable. By spending a bit more on salary you may make your team more competitive. Also the projected cap basement is $48m. Right now, the Blues are $9m under. Granted, they've got some signings to take care of, but there's some money to be spent. They ain't spending $9m on Oshie, D'Ags, Crombeen, Reeves, etc. http://capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=27 Important to note that the number doesn't include Cracknell, Bishop, Cole, and other guys who might crack the lineup... flag this comment
this must be double post Monday
Even if they did have the money, I don't know that putting so many resources in him would be such a good idea. I know he's still young but he really did nothing in the post season compared to what he did in the regular season.
While I don't think it would be an exercise futility, I'd leave it to another team out east. But Tampa is going to front the money for the kid because he's worth it for what he does on the ice and how many butts he puts in seats.
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The guy is a rock star. The revenue and excitement that he would generate would launch the Blues into the next stratosphere. You put a guy like this in the middle of the core lineup the Blues already have and they could soar.
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But where the difference in talent isn't that great and there's not a glaring need then yeah I would draft the local kid slightly higher than he might be rated. It is possible for the discount. He will have added pressure on himself. At the same time there's a loyalty and meaning greater than what others naturally feel to the crest on his jersey. That matters and goes a long way. Look at what Cam did around town. He felt it. For that he was great for the club. Unfortunately not so much on the ice.
http://lkorac10.blogspot.com/2011/06/pietrangelo-getting-jumpstart-on-next.html
To me, Stamkos is the exception. All the ingredients are optimal for the Blues.
a. Stamkos being a superstar type of player that you could add without subtraction.
b. His age making him worth a long term committment.
c. The Blues in the enviable position of no bad money on the books and having to spend money.
d. The Blues with a dynamic young core that would enhance Stamkos and vice versa.
e. Tampa being in the position of having big numbers already on their books makes them vulnerable.
f. The Blues not having a like-player that Tampa could retaliate with.
g. The Blues can afford the draft picks it would take.
*I posted the question on the Stltoday forum as well, some mentioned the Scott Stevens signing and that's a great parallel comparision. The Stevens signing, although expensive, was a complete win for the Blues. The subsequent events set the franchise back, but the Stevens deal by itself was completely a steal for the Blues.
I think Stamkos fits that mold. flag this comment
Stamkos would be great. Realistically, what type of deal do you think it would take to sign him and not have Tampa match the contract? flag this comment
But ok, since you already think I'm nuts.....
Tampa has about $14 M of cap space tied up in Vinny and St. Louie so you'd have to hit em in a way so as to make it very distasteful to match.
How about an eight year deal that pays $12/9/8/8/8/8/7/4.
With a clause that states Stamkos has to be the highest paid player on said team in the first two years of the deal. This would mean Tampa would have to re-write the deal to put him ahead of Vinny, who's at $10 M per.
(Might not even be legal.)
I'm guessing the early years would cause Tampa to have to do some creative bookkeeping.
And those amounts might be too low. If we're going to be realistic.
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Cap hit of $8 mil for 8 years when he is as young as he is and scores as much as he does. No brainer, you match that.
And I don't think that a clause like that would be legal.
If they weren't willing to match that, they would be trying to trade him to get players instead of picks for him. I really find it hard to believe that Tampa doesn't resign him and lets him go via offersheet. flag this comment
But if there's ever a place to use the offer sheet, he's a guy I'd do it for. That was really the speculation behind my original question.
I know clauses like that are allowed in other sports and business transactions, I'd be surprised if it wasn't legal. And if the league voided my deal based on that, I'd drag that little munchkin into court and challenge it.
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And if Tampa tries to deal him, whomever is on the other end would somehow have to find a way to sign him before consummating a deal, otherwise he'd still be ripe for the picking...... flag this comment
Honestly, the only way I think Tampa balks and lets him go because of an offersheet is if someone is crazy and offers a really long deal at a high value. Longer than 8 years. More like 12 years at 9 million+ before Tampa decides it is not worth it IMO. flag this comment
One thing to consider about Stamkos is that we are in the cap era and we haven't established being able to go too high in it. That said the cost is a good deal when you figure it costs you all of those picks. But saying that figuring where the Blues should finish, I'm not sure I wouldn't pull the trigger. I just don't believe it happens. It probably should but it won't. There were two players this year I would be willing to go all in for as RFAs and one has been offered arbitration--Shea Weber. As far as STamkos goes I'd do it. On this team he'd be incredible. Then again a highly skilled player playing on a line with St.Louis is always going to look good ;-)
I'm still very interested in Jay Barribal. The kid has some impressive skill. His weight has been a big killer for him. I like'em small or big but in balance on the roster. Which is why I still think the best guy for the Blues to target if they target an RFA would be Brouwer. But since I loved that concept the cap went wayyyy up.
The cap is ridiculous. It's freaking stupid really.
The other thing about Stamkos is that Toronto is the team rumored to be highly interested and they actually have the money to spend on him. The blues have to spend about 9 mil to get to the floor, but after the RFA signings, there's only going to be about 4 left and that will be spent on a couple pieces.
Looking back at that draft, everybody wanted Stamkos and a lot of guys still do, but right now I would rather have Pietrangelo. flag this comment